- Two Distinct Disease Entities:
- OPSCC is now classified as two biologically and prognostically distinct diseases:
- Based on high-risk HPV status:
- HPV-associated (p16-positive) and HPV-independent (p16-negative) carcinoma:
- A division formalized in the WHO classification and the AJCC 8th edition staging system
- HPV-associated (p16-positive) and HPV-independent (p16-negative) carcinoma:
- Based on high-risk HPV status:
- HPV-associated tumors:
- Carry a markedly better prognosis:
- With 8-year overall survival of 70.9% versus 30.2% for HPV-negative disease in RTOG 0129:
- HR 0.30; 95% CI 0.21–0.42
- With 8-year overall survival of 70.9% versus 30.2% for HPV-negative disease in RTOG 0129:
- Carry a markedly better prognosis:
- OPSCC is now classified as two biologically and prognostically distinct diseases:
- Histopathology:
- HPV-Associated (
- ) OPSCC:
- These tumors arise from the specialized reticulated epithelium lining the tonsillar crypts rather than the surface mucosa
- Characteristic features include:
- Nonkeratinizing growth:
- Lobules and sheets of immature basaloid cells with high nuclear-to-cytoplasmic ratios and hyperchromatic nuclei; absent or minimal keratinization
- Basaloid cytology:
- Resembling deep crypt epithelium, with lobular / endophytic growth and smooth pushing borders
- Permeating tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes:
- Within and around tumor nests
- Absence of surface dysplasia:
- Dysplasia is confined to crypts
- Cystic nodal metastases:
- Which can mimic branchial cleft cysts
- Nonkeratinizing growth:
- In a 4-year prospective study of 435 OPSCCs:
- Strictly defined nonkeratinizing morphology had a 99.1% positive predictive value for p16 positivity and 100% PPV for HR-HPV mRNA positivity
- A “nonkeratinizing with maturation” (hybrid) intermediate pattern is p16-positive in ~92% of cases
- HPV-Independent (Keratinizing) OPSCC:
- These resemble conventional keratinizing SCC of the upper aerodigestive tract:
- With keratin pearl formation
- Individual cell keratinization
- Intercellular bridges
- Progressive squamous maturation
- Origin from dysplastic surface epithelium
- Molecularly they are characterized by high rates of:
- TP53 mutation
- CCND1 (cyclin D1) copy-number gains
- 9p21 / CDKN2A loss
- These resemble conventional keratinizing SCC of the upper aerodigestive tract:
- A Note on Grading:
- Although HPV-associated tumors appear “poorly differentiated” by conventional criteria:
- They paradoxically carry the best prognosis:
- Westra has argued they may be best viewed as well-differentiated given their resemblance to native crypt epithelium
- They paradoxically carry the best prognosis:
- Both the 2018 CAP guideline and its 2025 update recommend against providing traditional grade / differentiation status for HPV-associated OPSCC:
- Instead recommend reporting the WHO histologic subtype
- Conventional grading (G1 to G4) still applies to HPV-independent OPSCC
- Certain morphologic features retain prognostic value even within p16-positive disease:
- Tumor cell anaplasia (nuclei ≥ 5 lymphocyte diameters) and multinucleation:
- Independently predicted worse disease-specific survival (HR 9.9 and 11.9, respectively), and “non-classic” HPV-positive morphology was associated with poorer 5-year survival (58.4% vs 83.9%)
- Keratinization:
- Independently predicts worse survival
- Tumor cell anaplasia (nuclei ≥ 5 lymphocyte diameters) and multinucleation:
- Although HPV-associated tumors appear “poorly differentiated” by conventional criteria:

- Histologic Variants:
- Basaloid SCC:
- Is a mixed entity resolvable by HPV status:
- HPV-positive:
- Younger patients
- p16+ / p53−
- Prognosis – favorable
- HPV-negative:
- Older patients
- Tobacco / alcohol-related
- p53 overexpression
- Biology – aggressive
- HPV-positive:
- Is a mixed entity resolvable by HPV status:
- Lymphoepithelial-like carcinoma:
- Requires mandatory dual HPV and EBV testing:
- As it closely mimics metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma
- Requires mandatory dual HPV and EBV testing:
- Basaloid SCC:
- HPV / p16 Testing:
- Who to Test:
- All patients with newly diagnosed OPSCC should undergo HR-HPV testing, regardless of histologic subtype:
- A strong CAP recommendation, endorsed by ASCO and listed as required in NCCN workup
- Testing may be performed on the:
- Primary tumor, a nodal metastasis, or FNA of a cervical node
- Routine testing is not recommended for:
- Nonsquamous oropharyngeal or non-oropharyngeal head and neck carcinomas (except sinonasal)
- p16 IHC — the First-Line Test:
- p16 immunohistochemistry is the recommended primary test:
- Positivity requires:
- ≥ 70% nuclear AND cytoplasmic expression with at least moderate-to-strong intensity:
- Typically in a confluent / block-like pattern
- ≥ 70% nuclear AND cytoplasmic expression with at least moderate-to-strong intensity:
- Positivity requires:
- The E6H4 clone is most widely used and validated
- With these criteria:
- Sensitivity for transcriptionally active HR-HPV approaches 100% with specificity of ~ 85% to 95% in the oropharynx
- Cases with 50% to 70% staining are equivocal and warrant HPV-specific testing
- p16 and HPV may be used interchangeably only within the oropharynx
- p16 immunohistochemistry is the recommended primary test:
- HPV-Specific (Direct) Testing:
- The 2025 CAP update expanded indications for confirmatory HPV-specific testing beyond p16 IHC:
- All patients with newly diagnosed OPSCC should undergo HR-HPV testing, regardless of histologic subtype:
- Who to Test:

- HPV-specific testing should be performed in:
- Low-prevalence geographic regions
- Equivocal p16 staining
- Discrepancy between p16 and morphology (e.g., p16+ but keratinizing)
- Large multisite tumors
- Non-tonsillar / non-base-of-tongue subsites
- Clinical trials
- SCC of unknown primary
- Discordant Results:
- p16+ / HPV− discordance occurs in ~ 4% to 20% of cases:
- In the multinational HNCIG-EPIC-OPC analysis (n=7,654):
- Discordant patients had intermediate prognosis:
- Significantly worse than double-positive and better than double-negative:
- Discordant patients had intermediate prognosis:
- In the multinational HNCIG-EPIC-OPC analysis (n=7,654):
- p16+ / HPV− discordance occurs in ~ 4% to 20% of cases:

- This has direct implications for de-escalation:
- As p16+ / HPV− tumors may be misclassified and inappropriately de-escalated
- AJCC 8th Edition Staging:
- The 8th edition established separate staging systems for p16-positive (HPV-mediated) and p16-negative OPSCC, based on the ICON-S validation study:
- T Classification
For p16+:- T0 is included, Tis is excluded, and T4 is a single category (no T4a / T4b:
- Because T4a and T4b survival curves were indistinguishable
- T0 is included, Tis is excluded, and T4 is a single category (no T4a / T4b:
- For p16−:
- Tis is included, T0 is excluded, and T4 is subdivided into T4a (moderately advanced) and T4b (very advanced)
- N Classification — The Most Divergent Element:
- p16+ OPSCC uses separate clinical and pathological N criteria, and ENE is not part of either:
- p16+ clinical N (laterality / size):
- cN1 = ipsilateral node(s) ≤ 6 cm
- cN2 = contralateral / bilateral ≤ 6 cm
- cN3 = any node > 6 cm
- p16+ pathological N (node count):
- pN1 = ≤ 4 positive nodes
- pN2 = > 4 positive nodes
- p16+ clinical N (laterality / size):
- p16− uses the traditional detailed system incorporating size, number, laterality, and ENE (N3b = clinically overt ENE)
- p16+ OPSCC uses separate clinical and pathological N criteria, and ENE is not part of either:
- T Classification
- Prognostic Stage Groups:
- For p16+, only Stages I to IV exist, and Stage IV is reserved for M1 disease only:
- Clinical:
- Stage I (T0 to T2 N0 to N1)
- Stage II (T0 to T2 N2 or T3 N0 to N2)
- Stage III (N3 or T4)
- Stage IV (M1)
- Pathological:
- Stage I (T0 to T12 pN0 to N1)
- Stage II (T0 to T2 pN2 or T3 to T4 pN0 to N1)
- Stage III (T3 to T4 pN2)
- Stage IV (M1)
- Clinical:
- For p16−, the traditional Stage 0 to IVC framework is retained
- For p16+, only Stages I to IV exist, and Stage IV is reserved for M1 disease only:
- The complete AJCC 8th edition staging tables from the NCCN Guidelines for both p16+ and p16− disease are shown below:
Table 4: American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM Staging System for HPV-Mediated (p16+) Oropharyngeal Cancer (8th ed., 2017) — NCCN Guidelines® — Head and Neck Cancers p. 135 (v2.2026)NCCNMay 11, 2026
Table 3: TNM Staging System for the Oropharynx (p16-) and Hypopharynx (8th ed., 2017) — NCCN Guidelines® — Head and Neck Cancers p. 132 (v2.2026)NCCNMay 11, 2026
TNM Staging System for the Oropharynx (p16-) and Hypopharynx (8th ed., 2017) — NCCN Guidelines® — Head and Neck Cancers p. 134 (v2.2026)NCCNMay 11, 2026
Prognostic Impact
The 8th edition downstages ~93% of HPV+ patients, with most Stage IVA (7th edition) patients reclassified as Stage I. [37]Prognostic discrimination improved substantially (concordance index 0.621→0.656 clinical; 0.640→0.663 pathological). [38]The validation Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrate that overlapping 7th-edition survival curves separate cleanly under the 8th edition:
Figure 3. Observed 3‐year overall survival for patients with human papillomavirus (HPV)‐positive oropharyngeal cancer based on seventh and eighth edition staging manual. - Stages I and II in p16+ disease do not consistently separate on survival, and > 80% of pathologically staged cases fall into Stage I, creating wide within-group hazard variance
- ENE — omitted from the formal p16+ classification — remains prognostically important (HR 3.40 for OS) and an NCCN adverse feature guiding adjuvant therapy
- The proposed AJCC 9th edition (AJCC9V) reincorporates pathological ENE and refines node-count thresholds
- p16+ non-tonsillar / non-base-of-tongue tumors may be inappropriately downstaged, as their favorable prognosis is less well established
- The 8th edition established separate staging systems for p16-positive (HPV-mediated) and p16-negative OPSCC, based on the ICON-S validation study:
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