
- Background:
- Tumor volume (TV) of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) increases exponentially during active surveillance, and the growth rate differs for each patient.
- TV doubling time (TVDT) is considered a strong dynamic marker for the prediction of the growth rate and progression of the tumor.
- Methods:
- This cohort study analyzed 273 PTC patients who underwent active surveillance for more than one year rather than immediate thyroid surgery.
- TVDT was calculated in each patient, and patients were divided into two groups:
- Rapid-growing (TVDT less than 5 years)
- Stable (TVDT of 5 years or more)
- Clinical and initial ultrasonography (US) features between the two groups were compared.
- Results:
- The median patient age was 51.1 years (interquartile range [IQR] 42.2–61.0 years)
- 76% of the patients were women.
- The initial TV of PTC was 62.1 mm3 (IQR 28.1–122.8 mm3)
- During a median of 42 months (IQR 29– 61 months) of active surveillance:
- 10.3% of the patients had a TVDT of less than two years
- 5.1% had a TVDT between two and three years
- 6.2% had a TVDT between three and four years
- 6.6% had a TVDT between four and five years
- 71.8% had a TVDT of five years or more
- Patients in the rapid-growing group (77 patients; 28.2%) were:
- Significantly younger ( p = 0.004) than those in the stable group (196 patients; 71.8%):
- Being younger than 50 years of age was significantly associated with rapid tumor growth of PTC (odds ratio = 2.31 [confidence interval 1.30–4.31], p = 0.004) in multivariate analysis.
- Significantly younger ( p = 0.004) than those in the stable group (196 patients; 71.8%):
- In ultrasound findings:
- MacrocalcificatioN:
- Was independently associated with rapid tumor growing of PTCs (odds ratio = 4.98 [confidence interval 2.19–11.69], p < 0.001)
- MacrocalcificatioN:
- Conclusions:
- TVDT is a good indicator for presenting the growing velocity of PTCs during active surveillance
- Younger age and macrocalcification in the initial US:
- Were associated with rapid-growing PTCs
- Determination of TVDT during the early phase of active surveillance may be helpful for the prediction of rapidly progressing PTCs and deciding whether to adopt an early surgical approach.
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