- American Thyroid Association (ATA) Low-Risk of Recurrence Overview:
- Patients considered low-risk (pre- or post-operative):
- Intrathyroidal papillary thyroid cancer ≤ 4 cm:
- T1 to T2
- No clinical nodal involvement:
- N0 or minimal N1a
- No distant metastasis (M0)
- No aggressive histologic variants
- No gross extrathyroidal extension
- Intrathyroidal papillary thyroid cancer ≤ 4 cm:
- Patients considered low-risk (pre- or post-operative):
- Core Randomized Trials:
- ESTIMABL1 (2012, France):
- Design:
- 2 × 2 factorial randomized control trial (RCT):
- Comparing low-dose (1.1 GBq) vs high-dose (3.7 GBq) radioactive iodine (RAI), and rhTSH stimulation vs thyroid hormone withdrawal for remnant ablation
- 2 × 2 factorial randomized control trial (RCT):
- Primary Outcome:
- Remnant ablation success at 6 to 10 months:
- ~92% to 95%
- 5‑Year Follow-Up (2018):
- 98% no evidence of disease
- No differences between RAI dose or preparation method
- Remnant ablation success at 6 to 10 months:
- Clinical Meaning:
- Low-dose RAI + rhTSH is as effective as high-dose with withdrawal
- Lower toxicity, better patient convenience:
- Incorporated in ATA 2015 guidelines (New Guidelines Coming Out Fall 2025)
- Design:
- HiLo (UK, Mallick et al., 2012):
- Design:
- Similar to ESTIMABL1:
- Compared low- vs high-dose plus rhTSH vs withdrawal
- Similar to ESTIMABL1:
- Outcome:
- Comparable ablation success and low recurrence rates
- Design:
- ESTIMABL2 (France, 2022):
- Design:
- RCT of low-dose RAI (1.1 GBq) vs no RAI, post-total thyroidectomy in low-risk DTC
- 3-Year Results:
- Recurrence:
- 2.7% (no RAI) vs 1.9% (RAI); non-inferior
- Recurrence:
- Commentary:
- Non-inferiority holds even at lowest end of risk spectrum:
- Upholds omission in select patients
- Non-inferiority holds even at lowest end of risk spectrum:
- Design:
- IoN (“Iodine or Not”) Trial (UK, Lancet June 2025):
- Design:
- Phase II / III RCT randomizing 504 low-risk DTC patients to RAI vs no RAI
- 5-Year Data:
- 98% disease-free without RAI vs 96% with RAI
- Omitting RAI improved quality of life and reduced isolation burden
- Significance:
- Largest definitive trial confirming RAI omission is safe in ATA low-risk patients
- Design:
- Additional Evidence and Observational Data:
- Long-term observational studies (> 8 years):
- Show high remission and low recurrence with low-dose RAI
- Meta-analyses and reviews echo findings:
- Low-dose or no RAI yields excellent oncologic outcomes in strictly low-risk DTC
- Long-term observational studies (> 8 years):
- ESTIMABL1 (2012, France):
- Clinical Take‑Home Points for Surgeons:
- Low-dose (1.1 GBq) RAI is sufficient for remnant ablation when RAI is used
- rhTSH is preferred for patient comfort
- RAI omission is safe in ATA low-risk cases:
- Per ESTIMABL2 and IoN with:
- ~ 98% disease-free survival at 5 years
- QoL benefit and reduced isolation burden when RAI is not used:
- Especially relevant for younger, family-centered patients
- Per ESTIMABL2 and IoN with:
- ATA 2015 guidelines:
- Support selective RAI omission, reinforced by current trials
- Surgical completeness matters:
- Trials include total thyroidectomy with low /absent nodal burden
- Partial thyroidectomy or residual disease was excluded
- Follow-up protocol:
- Stringent ultrasound and thyroglobulin monitoring essential when omitting RAI
- Practical ATA-Based Approach:
- Very Low / Low Risk ATA:
- Intrathyroidal ≤ 4 cm
- N0 to N1a
- No vascular invasion:
- Omit RAI:
- Active surveillance with US + Tg (with / without rhTSH)
- Omit RAI:
- If ablation desired (e.g., Tg monitoring ease):
- Use 1.1 GBq + rhTSH
- Intermediate Risk:
- Minimal extrathyroidal extension
- > 5 involved nodes:
- Consider selective RAI at low dose:
- Decision individualized based on risk tolerance
- Consider selective RAI at low dose:
- Very Low / Low Risk ATA:
- Summary:
- In ATA-defined low-risk DTC:
- Low-dose RAI + rhTSH is as effective as high-dose or withdrawal methods
- Importantly, omission of RAI does not compromise outcomes and offers QoL and cost benefits
- Surveillance replaces ablation, with triggers reserved for structural or biochemical recurrence
- In ATA-defined low-risk DTC:

