Incidence of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

  • In a report based upon the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1975 to 2018:
    • The incidence of papillary cancer:
      • Increased from 4.8 to 14.9 per 100,000:
        • Stabilized:
          • Then appeared to decline to approximately 13.5 per 100,000 by 2018
  • The death rates:
    • 0.5 per 100,000 male and female per year:
      • Did not change significantly
  • The 5-year relative survival:
    • Remains quite high:
      • At 98.3 percent (2011 to 2017 data)
  • The precise reasons for the increase, apparent plateau, and subsequent decrease in incidence rate in papillary thyroid cancer are unknown
  • The initial increase in thyroid cancer incidence in the United States:
    • Was seen in males and females, and in persons of all racial and ethnic backgrounds
  • The usual female-to-male ratio of papillary thyroid cancer is:
    • Approximately 2.5:1:
      • With most of the female preponderance occurring during the:
        • Fourth and fifth decades of life
  • The increased incidence was thought to partially reflect earlier detection of subclinical disease (ie, small papillary cancers):
    • Secondary to more widespread use of neck ultrasonography and fine-needle aspiration (FNA) of very small thyroid nodules:
      • However, an analysis of the National Cancer Institute’s SEER database:
        • Found an increase in the rates of differentiated thyroid cancer of all sizes, including tumors greater than 4 cm
    • Subsequently, there has been a move in the medical community away from the previous widespread practice of immediate biopsy of very small asymptomatic suspicious nodules incidentally detected on imaging
    • More selective use of FNA in small thyroid nodules along with more judicious use of thyroid ultrasonography, in general, could lead to a decrease in incident rates:
      • However, another primary cause of thyroid cancer (as yet unidentified) has not been excluded

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