
- The University of Southern California / Van Nuys Prognostic Index (USC/VNPI) estimates which patients with ductal carcinoma insitu (DCIS) can be managed by:
- Excision alone
- Excision plus radiation
- Mastectomy
- There were three groups of patients in the index:
- Group 1:
- Patients have non-high nuclear grade DCIS without necrosis
- Group 2:
- Patients have Non-high nuclear grade DCIS with necrosis
- Group 3:
- Patients have high nuclear grade DCIS with or without necrosis.
- Group 1:
- The original “Van Nuys Prognostic Index“:
- Introduced in 1996:
- Had two additional variables:
- They were:
- Size of DCIS
- Margin width
- They were:
- A score from 3 to 9 was derived by assigning 1, 2, or 3 points to each of the three variables as shown:
- Had two additional variables:
- Introduced in 1996:
| 1 Point | 2 Points | 3 Points | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Margin | ≥10 mm | 1 to 9 mm | < 1 mm |
| Size | ≤15 mm | 16 to 40 mm | > 41 mm |
- Patients who scored 3 or 4:
- Derived little benefit from radiation.
- Those who scored 5, 6, or 7:
- Derived substantial benefit from radiation.
- Those who scored 8 or 9:
- Had a high risk of relapse despite radiation.
- Best managed by mastectomy.

- In 2003:
- The name became the University of Southern California / Van Nuys Prognostic Index:
- And a 4th variable was added to the score:
- Patients who were younger than age 40 years received a score of 3.
- Those from ages 40 to 60 years, a score of 2.
- Those older than age 60 years, a score of 1.
- The range of possible scores then became 4 to 12.
- Patients with a score of 4, 5, or 6:
- Did not receive a statistically significant benefit from radiation.
- Those with scores of 7, 8, and 9:
- Who were treated with radiation received a significant reduction in local disease-free recurrence of 12% to 15%.
- Patients with scores of 10, 11, and 12:
- Had a local recurrence rate of almost 50% at 5 years despite radiation.
- And a 4th variable was added to the score:
- By 2010 the number of patients was large enough to allow analysis by individual scores as opposed to groups of scores, and the following was reported:
- To achieve a local recurrence rate of less than 20% at 12 years:
- These data support excision alone for all patients scoring 4, 5, or 6 and patients who score 7 but have margin widths ≥3 mm.
- Excision plus radiation therapy achieves the less than 20% local recurrence requirement at 12 years for:
- Patients who Score 7 and have margins < 3 mm
- Patients who score 8 and have margins ≥ 3 mm
- Patients who score 9 and have margins ≥ 5 mm
- Mastectomy is suggested for:
- Patients who score 8 and have margins < 3 mm
- Patients who score 9 and have margins < 5 mm
- All patients who score 10, 11, or 12 to keep the local recurrence rate less than 20% at 12 years
- To achieve a local recurrence rate of less than 20% at 12 years:
- The name became the University of Southern California / Van Nuys Prognostic Index:

REFERENCES
- Silverstein MJ. The University of Southern California/Van Nuys Prognostic Index for ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast. Am J Surg. 2003;186:337-343.
- Silverstein MJ, Lagios MD. Choosing treatment for patients with ductal carcinoma in situ: fine tuning the University of Southern California/Van Nuys Prognostic Index. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr. 2010;2010:193-196.
- Silverstein MJ, Lagios MD. Treatment selection for patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast using the University of Southern California/Van Nuys (USC/VNPI) Prognostic Index. Breast J. 2015;21:127-132.
- Silverstein MJ, Lagios MD, Craig PH, et al. A prognostic index for ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast. Cancer. 1996;77:2267-2274.
- Rodrigo Arrangoiz MS, MD, FACS cirujano de mama / cirujano oncology y miembro de Sociedad Quirúrgica S.C en el America British Cowdray Medical Center en la ciudad de Mexico:
- Es experto en el manejo del cáncer de mama.

Training:
• General surgery:
• Michigan State University:
• 2004 al 2010

• Surgical Oncology / Head and Neck Surgery / Endocrine Surgery:
• Fox Chase Cancer Center (Filadelfia):
• 2010 al 2012

• Masters in Science (Clinical research for health professionals):
• Drexel University (Filadelfia):
• 2010 al 2012

• Surgical Oncology / Head and Neck Surgery / Endocrine Surgery:
• IFHNOS / Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center:
• 2014 al 2016


